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Global Production Of Natural Rubber On The Decline

4/17/2009 - Production of natural rubber (NR) entered into a declining phase in all producing countries, according to estimates at the end of March 2009. Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka accounted for around 94 percent of the global production of NR during 2008. Total production in these seven countries is anticipated to decline by 2.2 percent in 2009, further to the 0.4 percent dip in 2008. In Thailand, the largest NR producing country accounting for about 33 percent of the global supply, production dropped by 13.9 percent during the first two months of 2009 on a year-over-year basis. The Department of Agriculture of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand anticipates the production during the year 2009 to be lower by 0.5 percent from 2008. Production in Indonesia is anticipated to decline during 2009 by 6.0 percent, in spite of the expected expansion in tappable area by 30,000 hectare, according to estimates of the Directorate of Perennial Crops, Ministry of Agriculture. Being the second largest producing country accounting for around 29 percent of the global supply, this 6 percent decline would bring down the global supply by 165,000 metric tons. In Malaysia, where the production had declined by 10.7 percent during 2008, a further decline by 4.6 percent is anticipated for 2009. Estimates of the Malaysian Rubber Board reveal a 43.5 percent decline in output during January 2009 as compared to January 2008. Tapped area, which came down by 173,000 ha in 2008, is anticipated to come down further by 20,000 ha in 2009. India has scaled down the production forecasts for 2009 in the backdrop of an unusually severe drought experienced during the first quarter of the year in the country’s major rubber growing region. Production declined by 11.2 percent during the first quarter, according to the estimates of the Rubber Board of India. Production during the year 2009 is anticipated to decline by 2.7 percent to 857,000 metric tons. Although tapped area could marginally expand by 2,000 ha, average yield is anticipated to come down to 1,850 kg/ha in 2009 from 1,912 kg/ha in 2008. Vietnam had witnessed a 1.8 percent decline in production during the first quarter of 2009, according to the Vietnam Rubber Association’s estimates endorsed by the Vietnam Rubber Group. The production during the year 2009 is anticipated to decline by 2.0 percent due to shrinkage in tappable area by 16,700 ha coupled with a decline in average yield to 1,661 kg/ha from 1,700 kg/ha in 2008. In China, although production is anticipated to increase by 13.7 percent in 2009, this is only a return to the normal production after the drastic fall in the previous year. Production had fallen by 13.3 percent during 2008 due to an adverse climate. Even with this anticipated 13.7 percent increase, production would still be marginally lower than the pre-2008 level. The Rubber Research Institute under the China Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences in Hainan Province anticipates that the production would be 580,000 metrio tons in 2009 as compared to 510,000 metric tons in 2008 and 588,000 metric tons in 2007. Production in Sri Lanka is anticipated to decline during 2009 by 2.3 percent to 126,000 metric tons from 129,000 metric tons in 2008, according to estimates of the ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics, Volume 1, No .2, March 2009. This is due to a reduction in tappable area by 2,000 ha and a decline in average yield from 1,360 kg/ha in 2008 to 1,319 kg/ha in 2009.

Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries
www.anrpc.org

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