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IRSG Expects Five Percent Growth In Rubber Consumption
1/9/2012 -
Based on figures through the first nine months of 2011, the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) expects total rubber consumption to total 25.9 million metric tons in 2011, and 27.2 mmt in 2012. Global synthetic rubber demand is forecast to grow by 5.5 percent to 14.9 mmt in 2011, and by a further 5.5 percent to 15.7 mmt this year; global natural rubber demand is forecast to rise by 2 percent to 11 mmt in 2011, and by a further 4.6 percent to 11.5 mmt in 2012. The IRSG said global natural rubber (NR) production is forecast to rise by 4.4 percent to 10.9 mmt in 2011, and sees output this year expanding at a higher rate of 5.1 percent to 11.4 mmt. The IRSG reported that total global rubber consumption continued to increase in the third quarter of 2011, rising to 25.8 mmt on a moving annual total (MAT) basis in September 2011. The rate of expansion has continued to decelerate, slowing down to 6 percent from 7.1 percent, respectively, over the same period. Global NR consumption totaled 10.9 mmt on a MAT basis in September 2011, continuing to grow at a decelerating rate. Global synthetic rubber (SR) consumption data were revised downwards from 2006-present, and were 14.8 mmt on a MAT basis in September 2011. Here, the rate of growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2011 as compared to the second quarter. Global total NR exports expanded to 7.48 mmt in September 2011, 6.5 percent higher than exports at the same point in 2010. World total SR exports continued to expand during the third quarter of 2011, increasing by 8.6 mmt on a MAT basis in September 2011, rising from 8.5 mmt on a MAT basis in June 2011. The IRSG said, on aggregate, the trend of volume of exports of selected latex general rubber goods from the five leading countries appears to be continuing to decrease in the third quarter of 2011. It is still centered on the other gloves sector, and is driven by the weakened state of the global economy. Global NR latex consumption dropped by 3 percent in September to 1.3 mmt, and appears to be driven by NR-SR substitution in downstream latex industries, as well as concern over slowing global NR demand in general rubber products.
International Rubber Study Group
www.rubberstudy.com
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